Update

future_proof.md

@@ -14,7 +14,9 @@ Despite the extremely bad situation not all hope is lost. At least in the world
 - Generally just avoiding the hyped "modern" "feature-rich" ([bloated](bloat.md)) technology arising from the consumerist market.
 - ...
 
-Please take a look at the table below that hopefully shows some sort of a pattern repeating in software development [history](history.md):
+Just **think**. To see how likely your program is to die in short time just ponder for a while: what parts is it composed of and how likely is each of them to continue functioning and be fixed if it breaks? It's really like with a house or car. Notice that probability of breaking increases with complexity and probability of fixing decreases with complexity (because a fix has a higher cost -- it needs more time, energy, skill and so on). Is your program written in a simple language for which there already exist 10 compilers and which can be implemented again in a month if needed? Then the program is not likely to die by compiler or anything that may kill a compiler, such as a different operating or a new CPU architecture. Is it written in a 5 year old language that's still changing under your hands, has a single compiler and which itself relies on 100 highly complex libraries? Chances of death are great, it is certain your program will break with the next update of the language, or the one after that, you'll have to be around to fix it, and then a month later and then another month and so on until you die, for every program you have written in this language. Does your program only need two libraries, both of which can easily be replaced by something else by only rewriting 10 lines of code? Then your program likely won't die because of these libraries! Does your program use 10 very convenient but complex libraries, each of which additionally uses 10 other libraries itself? In a simplified way you can see your program depending on 100 other libraries now, if a chance of one such library breaking during one year is 1%, the chance of your program breaking in one year is 1 - 0.99^100 ~= 63%; if it doesn't break this year, then the next or the one after that -- yeah, someone will likely fix a library that breaks, but maybe not, projects get abandoned out of burnout, boredom, in favor of new ones etc., and a fix of your dependency may also come with the need for you to be around and update your own program because of API change. Does your program depend on piece of consumerism hardware that in 2 years will stop being supported? Or some specific operating system or Internet service posing similar dangers? This is additional thing on your list to watch, else your program dies. If your program is broken without you being around, how likely will it be fixed by someone? How many people in the world will be capable and willing to fix it? If the program is simple, likely any average programmer will be able to fix it and if the fix takes 10 minutes of time, someone will most likely do it just out of boredom. If your program is 100 thousands lines of code long, requires knowledge of 10 specific framework APIs and its inner architecture just to modify anything of importance, average programmer won't be able to fix it, he won't even attempt it -- if there is someone able to do the job, he won't fix it unless someone pays him a lot of money. Your program is basically dead.
+
+Please take a look at the table below, maybe you'll be able to extract some patterns repeating in software development [history](history.md):
 
 | technology          | description                                                                                         | born           | dead                          |
 | ------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------- | ----------------------------- |